Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Predictio

In a world drowning in punditry and failed prophecies, Philip Tetlock’s landmark research revealed a sobering truth: most expert predictions are barely more accurate than random chance. Superforecasting emerges from the ashes of this failure, chronicling a decade-long quest to isolate and understand the rare individuals who demonstrably can see further into the future. The narrative is built upon the Good Judgment Project, a massive forecasting tournament that pitted thousands of ordinary volunteers against intelligence agencies and prediction markets.

The book meticulously dissects the habits of the top performers—the 'superforecasters.' It argues that superior prediction is not a mystical gift but a rigorous discipline. The methodology hinges on 'Fermi-izing' problems—breaking vast questions into manageable, researchable components—and thinking in fine-grained probabilities. This process demands an outsider's view, actively seeking information that contradicts initial assumptions and synthesizing insights from wildly different domains.

Tetlock and Gardner contrast this agile, evidence-based approach with the cognitive failures behind historic debacles like the Bay of Pigs, while also analyzing forecasting successes such as the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound. They demonstrate how superforecasters operate like 'foxes' who know many things, integrating diverse perspectives, rather than 'hedgehogs' wedded to one grand theory. Crucially, the book shows how these skills are amplified in carefully structured teams that foster constructive disagreement.

Superforecasting transcends mere academic study; it is a pragmatic guide for anyone whose decisions depend on anticipating tomorrow. It systematically dismantles the myth that forecasting is an art reserved for elites with secret data, proving instead that a commitment to probabilistic thinking, relentless self-correction, and intellectual humility can be cultivated. Its legacy is a demonstrable, teachable toolkit for navigating uncertainty in business, finance, policy, and daily life.

Readers celebrate the book as a transformative, rigorously researched antidote to vague intuition. The central thesis—that forecasting is a teachable skill—is met with enthusiastic endorsement, praised for its empowering and practical framework. Criticisms are minor, focusing occasionally on a desire for more concrete, step-by-step exercises. The prose is universally regarded as accessible, successfully translating complex psychological research into engaging narratives and clear, actionable lessons.